When Change Happens Overnight: A Reality of Frontier Markets
There’s a moment in most deals where everything looks like it’s lining up.
The introductions have taken place, the conversations have been had, all meetings have been conducted, the commercial logic makes sense and on paper, it feels like a matter of time.
And then something shifts. Not always dramatically. Not always visibly. But enough that what looked like a clear path forward is suddenly roadblocked.
That is a situation you only really understand once you’ve spent time operating in frontier markets, the frustration of inching a deal towards the finish line only for the finish line to move, or disappear entirely.
Imagine reaching mile 25 of a marathon and finding out the race is cancelled.
Speed of Entry: If You’re Not Already Inside, You’re Out
Why timing not just strategy defines success in frontier markets
In April of 2025 we introduced a tech client to an African Government, their intention, a large scale installation with guaranteed government offtake which would dramatically change the landscape of the country and critically the ministries working in that country. Last week, that deal fell through.
And it was not because of pricing, structure or competition. It was because the rules changed.
A shift in government policy fast, decisive and entirely within their control altered the landscape almost overnight. What was viable at the start of the week simply wasn’t by the end of it.
No warning. No transition period. No second chances.
The Bit Most People Don’t See
What makes this one sting slightly is that it wasn’t a cold opportunity.
We had introduced the client to the relevant decision-maker back in April 2024, the access was there. The relationship was there. The door was open.
But like many things in this space, it sat, with internal processes, legal, finance and senior management all moving at a pace that simply couldn’t match the speed of the opportunity unable to turn the wheels quickly enough to capitalise on what was effectively a gift wrapped ‘trojan horse’ into this particular nation.
There were discussions, internal reviews, commercial considerations all perfectly reasonable from a traditional perspective but frontier markets don’t always reward “reasonable” in the way developed markets do.
By the time movement actually happened, the landscape had shifted. Policy had changed. Priorities had moved on.
And the deal was gone.
The Reality Most Investors Get Wrong
There is a tendency particularly from outside the market to assume that deals follow a structured, predictable path:
• Identify the opportunity
• Run diligence
• Structure financing
• Negotiate
• Execute
And in theory, that’s exactly how it should work. In practice, especially in frontier markets, it rarely does.
Because these are not fixed environments, in point of fact they are exceptionally fluid markets, which is often a blessing as opportunities appear regularly and often, but without an understanding on the investor side that:
• Government priorities evolve quickly
• Policy can shift without much notice
• Decision-making isn’t always linear
• Timing is often just as important as structure
That is where many counterparties struggle. It is not that the rules don’t exist. It’s that they can change while you’re still getting comfortable with them.
When we onboard a client, VPK spends a significant amount of time on the education piece, setting expectations around how these markets operate and how to position correctly within them. This is a core part of our frontier market entry, because without that understanding, even the best opportunities can be missed.
The Window Is Smaller Than You Think
One of the biggest misconceptions is how long opportunities remain open. From the outside, it can feel like there’s time: time to analyse, time to refine, time to get everything perfect.
But in reality, the window is often much tighter than it appears, especially as in many environments the country is in dire need of whatever the project may produce, energy, food, connectivity, our day to day basics.
Momentum builds quickly in these environments. Conversations move fast. Decisions when they come can come suddenly. And just as quickly, the opportunity can disappear.
Speed Isn’t Just About Moving Fast
When people talk about speed, they usually mean execution:
• Quicker approvals
• Faster capital deployment
• Streamlined internal processes
Real speed in frontier markets is less about how fast you move in the moment, and more about being ready when the moment arrives.
It’s about:
• Having relationships in place before you need them
• Understanding the banking system
• Understanding how decisions are actually made
• Being close enough to the process to act when things shift
Because when the window opens or closes, there isn’t time to build that from scratch.
You either have it, or you don’t.
The Cost of “Just One More Step”
Hesitation in these markets rarely looks dramatic.
It looks like:
• “let’s just review this internally”
• “we’ll come back once we’ve aligned”
• “we need a bit more clarity before committing”
All sensible. All rational. But they come at a cost. Because while one party is refining, another may already be moving.
Sometimes, it’s not even about another party, sometimes the environment itself moves on. Policy shifts. Focus changes. Budgets get reallocated. And the opportunity you were carefully working through simply isn’t there anymore.
This Isn’t Chaos. It’s Just Different
From the outside, this can look unpredictable. It is not at all, it is just a different operating rhythm and once a client becomes comfortable with that rhythm and gets in that groove, it is a fantastic business landscape in which to operate.
In frontier markets, speed signals credibility, presence creates opportunity and decisiveness builds trust.
Governments and counterparties are used to working with people who can move. Not recklessly but confidently. Not perfectly but pragmatically.